Lasting shifts in a post-pandemic world
Open foresight group Future Agenda has a new presentation on “World in 2030 | Lasting shifts in a post-pandemic society”. Here are the 12 key points, read the presentation below for more detail on each.
Proof of immunity
Trust in Experts
China leading the world
Resistance to sharing space
Healthy remote work and education
Higher taxes
Resilience by design
Ecology reorientation
Open pharma
Less long-haul flying
Surveillance acquiescence
Increased transparency
A very thoughtful and well-reasoned list, and I just hope that the inherent optimism around ecology, transparency and trust in experts delivers meaningful impact on impending climate catastrophe. Recent conversations I’ve had with colleagues suggest another three:
Focus on population health . In a pandemic-free world, the health of society was rather abstract and could be comfortably ignored. Now politicians will be expected to have plans in place for population health, and maybe even Medicare for All in the US. Efforts will be more digital and consumer-focused, such with telehealth finally going mainstream.
Local supply chains. Just in time global supply chains become more expensive and their fragility is exposed. PPE shortages across the world are creating hardship and putting lives at risk. Blockchain may help guarantee provenance but there’s no substitute for local access, combined with fail-safe back up plans.
Prepper movement goes mainstream. From a niche group of oddballs, ‘preppers’ will feel vindicated (even relaxed Sweden is moving that way) and the demand for bolt-holes, safe spaces and secure storage of a variety of life-saving equipment will increase.
Key uncertainty: Social fragmentation. Will COVID-19 make societies more or less unequal? On the one hand it’s the wealthy people who can afford to retreat from society, stay isolated in second homes, work remotely, and order up their own ‘clean’ Ubers and Deliveroo. On the other hand, this crisis has united people and forced a recognition of shard humanity and selfless acts in ways that seemed hard to imagine just weeks ago. More significantly, unless democracy throughout the West is entirely dysfunctional and populists continue to get away with disingenuous claptrap, the crisis will be a time of radical change and the 99% will demand change. In the same way the New Deal was triggered The Great Depression or full employment as a goal was mandated after WWII. I hope that increasing trust in experts and transparency combine to at least salvage some meaningful systematic changes from tomorrow’s changed world.